What is pushing the Oil-Rich Venezuela to verge of a Civil war? This piece examines the political and economic instability in Venezuela, focusing on the difficulties encountered by former legislator Maria Corina Machado in her presidential bid. Amidst the crisis, Maduro’s government emphasized economic security and stability, while the opposition focused on addressing inequality and the plight of Venezuelans who had fled the country. The article also discusses the economic struggles faced by Venezuelans, with many earning less than $200 per month and facing difficulties affording basic necessities.

Overview:

Venezuela was once known for its wealth. Now it’s in a hard spot, caught between economic blunders, political knife fights and government standoffs. The real cause can be traced back to the Bolarian Revolution in 1999 – Hugo Chavez’s party. Reducing poverty and advancing social balance were Chavez’s keynotes, winning him vast approval in the early years. Yet, his follow-ups, Nicolas Maduro and his cadre, have come under fire for rank corruption and iron-fisted rule, along with clamping down on protests.[1] The political field has split into two clashed sides: the governing United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and a cluster of opposition groups. The latter claims the PSUV of doctoring election numbers, muzzling the press, and hunting down political rivals. Would you think it odd then that the government tags them as coup-masters and puppets? Well, believe it or not, they do.

Venezuela’s ongoing political upheaval warrants special attention for a host of reasons. A savage humanitarian crisis grips the nation, painted with a brush of corruption and accentuated by the lack of life’s essentials, from food to medicine. Critical these shortages maybe, they are forcing multitudes to abandon the homeland, multiplying the crises into a myriad of refugees swarming neighbouring lands. The tremors of instability juddering Venezuela’s very foundations have sent ripples wide across its sibling Latin American territories. Not merely felt by nations bracing the human influx on their borders, but reverberating politically, sparking clashes unseen and unheard. What do we need more, patience or solutions? Which will quell the unrest first – coming together or drifting apart?

The Venezuelan economy is fraught with sky-high inflation and plummeting oil output as if it is in the high hospital. There is a good level of destitution. Such economic disintegration radiates far and wide even outside the territorial boundaries of Venezuela and also engulfs many investors and businesses into its vortex. The disagreement is heating up and even more so in an international arena where countries such as USA, Russia and China are taking positions on the matter. One can see this problem within the framework of the interaction of two nearly irreconcilable principles: the protection of human rights and the sovereignty of the state. Such ordeals are of much significance because they outline the flaws of authoritarianism, misguided economy, and the importance of democratization. [2]

Historical Context

Venezuela’s politics are the product of a wide range of events and actors such as the dictatorship of Juan Vicente Gómez (1908-1935), the establishment of the democracy in the 1950s or the phenomenon of the Bolivarian Revolution with its leader former President Chavez. The aforementioned crisis in Venezuela now is a product of varying circumstances that have been overdue for a long time. Some of the key events which have contributed to the crisis are:

• The Bolivarian Revolution (1999-2013): With the encouragement of former president Hugo Chavez, activities comprising the Bolivarian Revolution are meant to change the paradigm in Venezuela with regards to the economy and more so the politics. The Chavez government gave special attention to the more inclusive policies of wealth redistribution, industry nationalization, and social program extension. As these policies were very popular with the lower classes of the nation, they also created stagnation of the economy and two-sided politics. [3]
• The Death of Hugo Chávez (2013): The death of President Hugo Chavez in 2013 was the beginning of a shift in the political struggle within Venezuela. Political tension developed, especially for Chávez’s successor Nicolás Maduro who had to deal with the split of power and the failing economy. [4]
• The 2014 Protests and the Emergence of the Opposition: In the year 2014, people mobilized in mass protests all over the country as the economy got worse, crime levels soared and abuse of political power was rampant. These protests also ushered in the formation of a consolidated opposition geared towards ousting the – then reigning – United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). [5]
• The 2015 National Assembly Elections: The 2015 National Assembly elections featured sweeping gains by the opposition’s Democratic Unity Roundtable coalition MUD as its members captured two-thirds of the National Assembly. Such a one-party sytem collapse political power in the PSUV which prepares volatile power against conflict soon. [6]
• The 2016 National Referendum and the Constituent Assembly: There was a national referendum in 2016 that tried to remove President Nicholas Maduro from power. The process was however over delayed by the CNE which was entirely controlled by the government making the opposition party to announce a boycott of the 2017 elections. [7]
• The 2017 National Constituent Assembly Elections: The national assembly elections happened in 2017 to set up some new government body that could rewrite the constitution. The opposition party decided not to participate though, because there were accusations about the government intimidating people and messing with the results and with the opposition sitting it out, the assembly wound up stacked with delegates loyal to President Maduro, so it just strengthened his power even more. [8]
• The 2018 Presidential Elections and the International Response: In 2018 when Maduro ran for another term as president, he won but the whole international community regarded the election as totally rigged and bogus. The opposition under Juan Guaidó used the fraudulent election excuse to declare the results void and proclaim that Guaidó would take over as interim president of Venezuela.  This kicked off a huge political crisis with the U. S.  and several other countries recognizing Guaidó as the legitimate leader, while Maduro held onto power. [9]
• The 2019 the Union of Opposition and Interim President: In January 2019, Venezuela’s fragmented opposition groups finally came together to back Juan Guaidó, who was head of the National Assembly which was the last institution they still had some control over. With the National Assembly’s blessing Guaidó went ahead and declared himself interim president of Venezuela.  Over 50 nations acknowledged Guaidó as the legitimate transitional leader, but the Venezuelan military stuck by Maduro. Owing to supports from international allies like China and Russia, Maduro managed to hold the power in his hand, although he lost international supports considerably. [10]
• Dissolution of Interim Government and Election of Murado for the Presidential Candidate in 2023: The lack of progress in Juan Guaidó’s attempts to take power caused widespread disappointment, which led to several opposition parties withdrawing from his “interim government” alliance in December 2022. This contributed to the current political crisis. [11]

Election Results and Political Crisis

As the election results roll in, Venezuela’s opposition and President Nicolás Maduro’s government are locked in a high-stakes standoff after each side claimed victory in Sunday’s presidential vote. For many in the struggling nation, this was viewed as their greatest opportunity to put an end to 25 years of governance by a single political party. Several foreign governments, including the United States, have held off on recognizing the results as election officials delayed releasing detailed vote tallies [12] After proclaiming Maduro the winner with 51% of the vote to 44% for the retired diplomat Edmundo González, who represents the opposition, González claimed, “Venezuela and the entire world know what happened.” [13]

Venezuela’s opposition coalition claims it has garnered 7% of the vote, not 44% as reported by the authorities. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking from Tokyo, said that the US has serious concerns that the announced results do not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people. Gabriel Boric, the progressive leader of Chile, stated that the Maduro government needs to recognize that the results it released are hard to trust. [14]

Public Reaction and International Condemnation

In the capital city, a mix of anger, tears, and loud pot banging greeted the announcement of results by the Maduro-controlled National Electoral Council. Voters had lined up before dawn to cast ballots on Sunday, boosting the opposition’s hopes that it was about to break Maduro’s grip on power.

The official results came as a shock to the opposition members who had celebrated online and outside a few voting centers what they believed was a landslide victory for González. Opposition leader María Corina Machado said that the margin of González’s victory was overwhelming, and this was based on voting tallies the campaign received from representatives who were stationed at about 40% of the ballot boxes.

This election will have far-reaching consequences across the Americas, as both government critics and supporters express their desire to join the 7.7 million Venezuelans who have already emigrated from their homes for opportunities abroad. Authorities indicated that if Maduro wins a second six-year term, the election on Sunday will fall on the same day as the 70th birthday of former president Hugo Chávez. Chávez was a highly regarded Marxist firebrand who entrusted Maduro with leading the Bolivarian movement until he passed away from cancer in 2013. [15]

Delayed Release of Results and Government Allegations

The authorities have delayed releasing the results from each of the 30,000 polling boots nationwide, promising only to do so in the coming hours, hampering attempts to verify the results. González was the unlikeliest of opposition standard-bearers: a retired diplomat, the 74-year-old was unknown until he was tapped in April as a last-minute stand-in for the opposition powerhouse Machado, who was prevented by the Supreme Court under Maduro’s control from holding any position for a period of 15 years. [16]

The delay in announcing the winner, which came 6 hours after polls were supposed to close, indicated a deep debate inside the government about how to proceed after Maduro’s opponents emerging early in the evening, Maduro nearly declared victory. After asserting that he had won, he alleged that unknown foreign adversaries were attempting to interfere with the voting system. He claimed at the presidential palace, “This is not the first time that they have tried to violate the peace of the Republic,” although he provided absolutely no evidence to back the claim. He vowed to ensure accountability for anyone attempting to incite violence in Venezuela. [17]

Economic Crisis and Social Unrest

Venezuela used to have the most advanced economy in Latin America and possesses the greatest verified oil reserves in the world. However, it began to decline significantly after Maduro assumed leadership. Dramatic drops in oil prices, extensive shortages, and hyperinflation exceeding 130,000% initially sparked social upheaval, which eventually resulted in large-scale emigration. Economic sanctions from the United States of America, seeking to force Maduro from power after his 2018 re-election which the US and dozens of other countries condemned as illegitimate, only deepened the crisis. [18]

Opposition’s Focus on Hinterland and Economic Recovery

The opposition has sought to capitalize on the significant disparities created by the crisis, as many Venezuelans have turned away from their national currency, the bolivar, in favor of the US dollar. González and Machado focused much of their campaigning on Venezuela’s vast hinterland, where the economic activity seen in the capital in recent years absolutely did not materialize. Opposition side have promised to establish governmental arrangements that could facilitate the return of Venezuelans living abroad reunite with their families create and for the purpose the opposition have vowed to create sufficient jobs.

Maduro’s Unpopularity and Opposition’s Unity

Today Maduro’s political party is face to face with unprecedented unpopularity, and the reasons cited are rising hunger, collapse of wages, devastation of the oil sector and policies that lead to mass migration leading to separation of families. After prolonged internal conflicts and election boycotts that hindered their efforts, the opposition has unified by supporting a single candidate. This move is intended to increase their chances of defeating the governing party. The Maduro-controlled Supreme Court imposed a 15-year ban on Machado running for any political office.

Opposition Candidate’s Journey and Electoral Barriers

As a former legislator, she overwhelmingly won the opposition’s October primary, securing over 90% of the votes. Following her disqualification from the presidential race, she nominated a college professor as her replacement on the ballot. However, the National Electoral Council also prohibited her from registering this candidate. In light of these obstacles, González, a complete political novice, was selected as the opposition’s candidate.

Venezuela’s Economic Crisis and Maduro’s Promises

Venezuela possesses the world’s largest proven oil reserves and once had Latin America’s most developed economy. However, it has experienced a sharp decline since Maduro assumed power. There has been a large flight of Venezuelans due to hyperinflation surpassing 130,000%, acute shortages, and falling oil prices. Economic sanctions from the United States of America, seeking to force Maduro from power after his 2018 re-election which the US and dozens of other countries condemned as illegitimate, only deepened the crisis.

Maduro’s pitch to voters this election was one of economic security and stability, which he tried to sell with stories of entrepreneurship and references to a stable currency exchange and lower inflation rates. The International Monetary Fund forecast the economic system will develop 4% this 12 month, one of the quickest in Latin America, after having gotten smaller 71% from 2012 to 2020. Despite those efforts, the bulk of Venezuelans have no longer experienced a significant development in their dwelling situations. With many Venezuelans earning less than $200 per month, families face difficulties in purchasing basic necessities. Some work a second job, and some even third jobs. A basket of basic staples sufficient to feed a family of four for a month costs an estimated $385 US.

Opposition’s Focus on Inequality and Hinterland

In the midst of the financial crisis, the protests have highlighted the glaring inequalities that have emerged. Venezuelans are largely abandoning their national currency, the bolivar, in exchange for the US dollar. dollar atom. Gonzalez and Machado have focused much of their campaign on Venezuela’s vast hinterland, where the economic activity seen in the capital in recent years has barely come in. They forced a government that could create enough jobs enticing Venezuelans living abroad to return home and reunite with their families.

Conclusion

Venezuela’s political crisis has reached a critical point, with recent presidential election results having major implications for the country’s future as Nicolas Maduro’s victory extends his authoritarian rule and creates a humanitarian crisis giving Venezuela years of… fraud and injustice Despite the lack of unity after one opposition, the opposition failed to overcome the institutional obstacles created by the ruling party. The election results were widely criticized by the international community and Juan Guaido was widely recognized as the rightful president of Venezuela. But Maduro still controls military state institutions that are unlikely to be removed from power through peaceful means. The Venezuelan crisis is a stark reminder of the dangers of authoritarian economic mismanagement.

Meanwhile, the once-booming economy has collapsed, forcing millions of Venezuelans to flee their homes. The humanitarian crisis shows no sign of abating, and the political crisis does not seem to be in control. Venezuela needs a common global approach to the crisis, including specific sanctions and international pressure. Moreover, Venezuela needs sincere commitment from all sides in order to engage in constructive dialogue and strive for a peaceful, democratic resolution. Ultimately, the future of Venezuela still lies with its people. They advocated for rights and freedoms that they could have afterwards to ensure that their leaders would pay for their decisions. Only with the mixed efforts of the Venezuelan people can the country throw itself over this mess and create a brighter future for every person.

References:

1. Juli Buxton, “Continuity and change in Venezuela’s Bolivarian Revolution” 41 Third World Quarterly (2020).
2. CEPAZ Justice and Peace Center, ‘Political Persecution in Venezuela’, Geneva (June 2015).
3. Supra at 1
4. Catherine E. Shoichet and Dana Ford, ‘Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez dies’, CNN World, Mar. 5, 2013.
5. Ciara Nugent, ‘In Photos: Venezuelans Protest Against Maduro’s Government’, TIME, 24, 2019.
6. William Neuman, ‘Venezuelan Opposition Claims a Rare Victory: A Legislative Majority’, The New York Times, Dec. 6, 2015.
7. “Venezuela’s Maduro recall referendum drive suspended” BBC, Oct. 21. 2016, available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37724322 (Last visited: Aug 5, 2024).
8. Tamara Taraciuk Broner, “Venezuela: The Constituent Assembly Sham”, Human Rights Watch, Jun 31, 2017, available at: https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/07/31/venezuela-constituent-assembly-sham (Last visited: Aug 5, 2024).
9. Vanessa Buschschluter, “Venezuela Crisis in Brief”, BBC, Aug 5, 2014, available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48121148 (Last visited: Aug 5, 2024).
10. Ibid
11. Ibid
12. Samantha Schmidt, “UN experts say Venezuela Election Results Lack Basic Transparency”, The Washington Post, Aug 13, 2024, available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/13/venezuela-election-results-un-report/ (Last visited: Aug 13, 2024).
13. “Maduro Claims Victory in Disputed Venezuela Election: What’s Next?”, Al Jazeera.com, July 29, 2024, avaialble at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/29/maduro-claims-victory-in-disputed-venezuela-election-results-whats-next (Last visited: 13 Aug 2024).
14. Ione Wells, Thomas Mackintosh, “Overwhelming Evidence Venezuela Opposition Won Election – Blinken”, BBC, Aug 3, 2024, available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd1d10453zno (Last visited: Aug 14, 2024).
15. Venezuela Investigative Unit, “Rise of the Criminal Hybrid State in Venezuela”, pg 4 (July 2023).
16. Vivian Sequera, Mayela Armas and Deisy Buitrago, “Venezuela court upholds ban on leading opposition presidential candidate Machado”, Reuters, Jan 27, 2024, available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-arrests-allies-opposition-candidate-conspiracy-accusations-2024-01-26/ (Last visited: Aug 14, 2024).
17. Supra at 9
18. Diana Roy and Amelia Cheatham, “Venezuela: The and Fall of a Petrostate”, Council on Foreign Relations, July 31, 2024, available at: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/Venezuela-crisis (Last visited: 15).